Richmond, VA · Q3 2026 data
What’s my commercial property worth?
If you know it, NOI replaces the market-rent estimate and tightens the range.
Your estimate appears here
Choose a property type, submarket, and size, then enter your email and phone to see the range.
How the estimate works
1. Income approach
Starts with the submarket’s average rent from the Q3 2026 Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer MarketBeat, adjusts it for building class or format, then takes out vacancy, credit loss, and expenses to get net operating income. That NOI is divided by a cap-rate band for the property type.
2. Recent local sales
Applies the price per square foot (or per unit) of verified Richmond-area sales in the same bucket: 10 industrial, 5 retail, 4 office, and 11 multifamily. Buildings under 20,000 SF (office), 50,000 SF (industrial), or 40 units are compared with small-building sales instead of institutional ones.
3. Blend and range
The two are blended — sales carry more weight for industrial and small owner-user buildings, rent carries more when you enter actual NOI. Vacant space below a stabilized level is deducted for lease-up. The range is never narrower than ±12% (±15% for small buildings).
Tested against real sales
Each of 30 verified sales was estimated with itself removed from the data. 22 of 30 sold inside the range; the median gap between the middle of the range and the actual price was about 12%. Misses ran mostly low, on new warehouses and small owner-user buildings.
| Property type | Sold inside range |
|---|---|
| Multifamily | 10 of 11 |
| Industrial | 6 of 10 |
| Retail | 4 of 5 |
| Office | 2 of 4 |
Cap rates used
Only multifamily has a published Richmond cap-rate survey. The other types start from national net-lease averages, so their ranges are wider.
| Class A (2010+) | 5.0% – 5.5% |
| Class B (1985–2009) | 5.75% – 6.5% |
| Class C (before 1985) | 6.25% – 7.25% |
| Built 2015+ | 5.62% – 6.87% |
| 1990–2014 | 6.37% – 7.62% |
| Before 1990 | 7.11% – 8.37% |
| Anchored, average | 6.05% – 7.05% |
| Unanchored strip, average | 6.8% – 7.8% |
| Single-tenant, national credit | 5.8% – 6.8% |
| Single-tenant, franchisee | 6.37% – 7.37% |
| Class A | 7.25% – 8.25% |
| Class B | 8.25% – 9.5% |
| Class C | 9.5% – 11.0% |
What it can’t see
- Your leases — term remaining, rent bumps, renewal options, and who pays which expenses
- Tenant credit, and rents above or below market
- Condition, deferred maintenance, and recent capital work
- Excess land, zoning upside, access, visibility, and parking
- Environmental or title issues
- Who is buying right now, and on what financing terms
Sources
- Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer, Richmond Office MarketBeat Q3 2026
- Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer, Richmond Industrial MarketBeat Q3 2026
- Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer, Richmond Retail MarketBeat Q3 2026
- Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer, Richmond Multifamily MarketBeat Q3 2026
- CBRE, Richmond Industrial Figures Q3 2026
- CBRE, Richmond Office Figures Q3 2026
- CBRE, Net-Lease Investment Volume Rises in Q2 2026 (national net-lease cap rates; latest available)
- The Boulder Group, Single Tenant Net Lease Cap Rates Rise in Q3 2026 (national)
- Newmark, 1Q26 Richmond Office Market Overview
- Northmarq, Richmond Multifamily Q1 2026
- Yardi Matrix, Richmond Multifamily Report (April 2026)
- Individual sales: Richmond BizSense, Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer, and Newmark reporting (linked beside each sale in the estimate).
Questions
- How accurate is this estimate?
- We tested it against 30 verified Richmond-area sales, estimating each one with that sale removed from the data. 22 of 30 sold inside the range, and the typical gap between the middle of the range and the actual price was about 12%. When it missed, it usually missed low — most often on brand-new warehouses and small owner-user buildings.
- Is this an appraisal or a broker opinion of value?
- No. It is an estimate based on quarterly market research and public sales, not on your property. An appraisal or broker opinion of value looks at your leases, tenant credit, rent roll, condition, site, and the current buyer pool.
- Why is the range so wide?
- Because it has to be. Two buildings of the same size in the same submarket can sell 30% apart on lease terms, condition, and location within the submarket alone. Entering your actual NOI narrows it; a property-specific valuation narrows it further.
- Where does the data come from?
- Submarket rents and vacancy come from Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer's Q3 2026 Richmond MarketBeats, cross-checked against CBRE, Newmark, Northmarq, and Yardi Matrix. Cap rates come from Northmarq (Richmond multifamily) and CBRE and Boulder Group national net-lease surveys. Sales come from Richmond BizSense, Cushman & Wakefield | Thalhimer, and Newmark reporting. Every source is linked below.
- How often is it updated?
- Each quarter, when the new market reports come out. Verified local sales are added as they close.